THE battle is gathering pace to represent Helensburgh in the House of Commons - and the first poll has been published showing how the local contest might go.
The results of detailed analysis carried out by YouGov for Sky News have been published, with predictions for every constituency across the UK.
The Helensburgh and Lomond area is part of the newly enlarged seat of Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber for the first time, with population movement resulting in the previous Argyll and Bute constituency being enlarged to take in Ardnamurchan and the area south and west of Fort William.
YouGov's analysis suggests that if a General Election were held today, the SNP would be likely to win the seat by a fairly comfortable margin.
The constituency is described as ‘likely SNP’ in the detailed seat-by-seat analysis carried out by YouGov.
The research suggests Labour could win 34 Scottish seats at the July 4 poll, with the SNP taking 17, the Conservatives five and the Liberal Democrats one.
The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a Commons majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924.
The YouGov research for the local seat predicts a 34.3 per cent vote share for the SNP, well ahead of the Conservatives on 23.7 per cent.
However, Labour is a close third place in the analysis, with 22.6 per cent of the vote.
The SNP held the old Argyll and Bute seat for the last nine years of its life after Brendan O'Hara unseated the Liberal Democrats' Alan Reid in the SNP 'landslide' of 2015.
YouGov's research has the Lib Dems - who held the Argyll and Bute seat for 28 years, first through Ray Michie and then Alan Reid - on 5.9 per cent, placing them fifth in the predicted rankings, just behind the Greens.
In addition to Mr O'Hara and Mr Reid, standing for the SNP and Lib Dems respectively, Hamish Maxwell is contesting the seat for Labour and Oban councillor Amanda Hampsey for the Conservatives.
READ MORE: UK General Election 2024 guide for Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
YouGov’s estimated seat projections were based on responses from 5,541 adults in Scotland and 53,334 in England and Wales.
YouGov said the Scottish sample was the largest it had used for a poll using the MRP technique since the 2019 general election.
Across the UK, the YouGov research suggests Labour is on course for a landslide win with 420 MPs, up from 202 at the last election five years ago, with the Conservatives down to just 140.
The projected SNP total of 17 seats is little more than a third of the 48 constituencies won by the party in 2019.
The deadline for candidates to submit nomination papers is 4pm on Friday, June 7, and the lists of candidates standing in the constituency will be published by 5pm on the same day.
The YouGov predictions published on Monday are the first of three polling projections it will carry out with Sky News during the course of the campaign.
For more information on the YouGov research see yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024.
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